Review of TEN MINUTE TRADER MATTHEW BIRD

Financial fixed odds trading system
Agora Lifestyles Ltd, Shortcut Publications

This is one of a few examples of Business Opportunity Watch Reviews which are freely available for everyone to read on the public section of the website. The reason for making a small sample of the reviews freely available is to help you to decide if you want to join, and also to communicate some matters of general interest arising in the case of some of the reviews. All the other reviews are available only to members. A zero score or a low score means that in our opinion the business model or the investment model has flaws and/or that we have found inadequate evidence to back up claims about earnings, sales, profits etc. It doesn't mean this evidence does not exist and it doesn't mean that the opportunity is a scam and it doesn't mean that the promoters are unprofessional or dishonest. Questions arising are normally contained within the body of the review, and readers who are interested should contact the company with these questions and/or questions of their own.

Review of MATTHEW BIRD TEN MINUTE TRADER
Financial fixed odds trading system
Agora Lifestyles Ltd, Shortcut Publications

Review from March 2010 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY WATCH
Issue No. 37

TEN MINUTE TRADER
Matthew Bird
Agora Lifestyles Ltd
Sea Containers House
7th Floor
20 Upper Ground
London
SE1 9JD
Tel: 020 7633 3630
www.shortcutpublications.co.uk/shop/10-minute-trader.html

- Extract from sales copy
- Review
- Your feedback

Extract from sales copy:

After years of frustration with money-making schemes, desperate single dad reveals how ANYONE can make 'small amounts' of £270-£770 per week from the stock market...

"These secret 'fall-out' signals made me enough cash in one month to take my daughter on a 5-star trip to Florida!"

So easy my 'guinea-pig' sister made £3,107 in her FIRST month trying this!

I couldn't believe it... £270...£445... £105...£77... £390... £155... these amounts kept tumbling into my bank account as regular as clockwork.... just for 10 minutes 'work' on my PC at 7.00pm after my daughter had gone to bed...

In my first year these 'small amounts' made me over £17,000.00 in my spare time, after I came home exhausted from my mind-numbing day job... enough to pay for a luxury holiday to Florida and buy a better car than my boss!

That's an extra £1,416.00 a month - while I was running a bath!

If you can spare 10 minutes an evening after 7.00pm, I'll show YOU how you can do the same

Review:

Ten Minute Trader, created by Matthew Bird, certainly sounds too good to be true.

Marketed by Agora Lifestyles, the sales material says that you can make an extra £270 to £770 a week for only 10 minutes work at around 7pm each evening.

You don't need to understand the financial markets and you don't need to know anything about complex graphs and charts or technical jargon. And you don't need to be intelligent - Matthew Bird says you can even do it when you're "brain dead".

All you do is switch on your PC at 7pm, and take 5 minutes to go to a website he tells you about, check through his 6 point checklist and if you get just one tick then that means there are small profits to be had and you can then place a simple trade which takes another five minutes. Then you switch off your PC - no nail-biting anxiety about whether and when to exit your trade. He says his system will enable you to pick up profits of between £150 and £550 a time between one and three times a week.

He calls it fall-out trading: "All we're doing is waiting for a fall-out signal that shows us that the City Traders are forcing the market up or down ... then we place a bet that the market WON'T swing the other way."

Matthew Bird says it's not risky, either, because it uses "Fixed Odds" bets which means that you can only win or lose the amount you specify when opening your trade.

The Ten Minute Trader system has transformed Matthew Bird's life, according to Agora Lifestyle's sales letter. Until four years ago he worked at a supermarket, and he's a single dad with a young daughter who (conveniently) needs to be in bed by 7pm. Matthew Bird made £17,000 from Ten Minute Trader in his first year, and went on a luxury holiday to Florida and bought a new car.

Matthew Bird's Ten Minute Trader comes with his email support and he also posts a weekly bulletin guiding you through the markets and letting you know what he's trading.

You can order with confidence because there's a 4 week guarantee that if you don't make at least £500 in your account after 4 weeks of using his system then you can have your money back.

And there's a second guarantee, as well: "Try my system and I guarantee you'll at least DOUBLE your money within three months of being a 10-Minute Trader. If you don't, my strategy, time and training won't cost you a penny."

All you have to do is to read the guide he sends you, which he says will take 100 minutes, and then set up an account and you're ready to get started.

This certainly sounds too good to be true.

However, some of it certainly is true. Fixed odds trading is a good, low-risk way for newcomers to enter financial trading because you can't lose more than your stake, and you have to have paid your stake in cash before you start. In fact, it's rather like a traditional bet on a horse. This removes the reason why many people fail at financial trading - because they do not have a large enough start-up bank and because they use leveraged bets (such as spread-betting) in the hope of higher wins, but the downside is that if they lose then they can lose more than their stake.

As Anna Coulling , who is a full time currency and commodities trader, says on her website at www.fixed-odds-trading.co.uk:

"The concept of trading using fixed odds is very simple to understand and is based in trading using real cash with no leverage. When you open a trade, your risk is always known beforehand, so you can only lose the amount specified in the trade, no more no less. So if you open a trade with a £10 risk, then this is the maximum you can lose, no matter what happens. Equally your profit is also known beforehand, and as you are trading using real cash, then your profits or losses are never leveraged, and you only win or lose the amount you specify when opening your trading position. Now before you run away with the idea that this seems a rather simple way to trade, let me give you another example of how to use fixed odds in a more sophisticated way when markets are moving sideways. In this case, trying to trade using a simple buy or sell trade, is almost impossible as stop losses are taken out in the the daily whipsaw of prices. Options would be a typical approach to use, but with fixed odds we have a great trading strategy which is the no touch trade, which essentially allows us to open a position which will win, if the price specified is not met within the timescale. This is one of the many ways you can use fixed odds, either as a free standing strategy, or in tandem with your other trades.

To sum up, I believe fixed odds trading is an innovative and low risk way to trade, providing all the advantages of more complex trading strategies, with a known risk and rewards profile before you open your position, and with no leveraged risk of any margin calls. All in all, an excellent way to learn with real money, and with limited and clearly defined risk on each trade before you enter the market. With a range of complex trades available, fixed odds offer a unique and elegant way to trade using real cash with low risk."

It nevertheless increases my confidence in this offer that Matthew Bird does not simply dismiss the risk of losing or try to sweep it under the carpet, like many other offers of stock market trading systems that I've seen. Instead, he makes no bones about the fact that you will sometimes lose. "I STILL lose from time to time. And you'll take losses too. There's no avoiding it. Anyone who says they've found a foolproof system that NEVER loses is a liar."

And, whereas most other sales letters for trading systems put this point in the small print (if they mention it at all), he gives it bold capital letters:

"DON'T RISK MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE! ...This isn't a magic wand - so if you're struggling with debt don't try this!"

He also says that sometimes you won't get the signal for a whole week.

Another plus point for this offer is that it is simple. Many other trading systems I've seen say they're simple, but the system includes 5 or 10 DVDs you are supposed to absorb ... which you're unlikely to be able to do before the trial period runs out. Matthew Bird's offer consists simply of a manual which will take you less than two hours to read. He does, however, stress that you need to read it from cover to cover first.

The cost is an affordable £247.

I did have a few questions about this offer, however, which I've put to Matthew Bird as follows:

1. Why are you making this offer? From your point of view, it doesn't seem to make sense either from the point of view of the money you will make or the time requirements it will impose on you, as follows:
   
   You say that, "If I'd had this chance when I began trading, I would have made my first million within 18 months" which implies that, after four years, you're making nearly a million a year. Your sales letter says that you're only looking for 500 people, and 500 x £247 = £123,500. Of that, presumably Agora will take half so that means that you will receive about £60,000. But normally you'd be earning that amount in less than a month from your trading. You also say that you normally charge people "anything up to £5,000 to walk them through the ins-and-outs of 10-Minute Trading" and you say that "I could earn much more if I worked a full time doing this, but I enjoy my tennis my free time too much. And I love spending time with my daughter." So why did you decide to let yourself in for what must be a lot of hassle giving email support to 500 people for three months?
   
   
2. I see that you recommend BetOnMarkets as the broker to use. I have heard that BetOnMarkets have sophisticated algorithms which tailor the odds to each customer, rather like the online casinos, so if you were to win regularly then you'd find that you were not offered such good odds. Is this a problem in your experience?
   
   
3. The order form says clearly that you have a 30-day no-quibble money back guarantee, but in the text of the letter there's a three month guarantee, too, as follows:
   
   "In fact, I'd like to make you this promise...
   
   Try my system, and I guarantee you'll at least DOUBLE your money within three months of being a 10-Minute Trader. If you don't, my strategy, time, and training won't cost you a penny."
   
   So is it just a 30-day guarantee, or does this three month guarantee apply, too?
   
   
4. Can you give us any feedback yet on how people who've bought your system are getting on with it?
   
   
5. I hadn't heard of you before, so I did some searching on the Internet. The Agora sales page says that "10 Minute Trader is a third party offer brought to you by Agora Lifestyles on behalf of Media Empire, 17 Alpha Road, Southville, Bristol BS3 1DH". This property belongs to someone called David Fedash, aged 46, whose background is in the film industry as a financial controller and script writer. I would have assumed that you might be his tenant if it were not for the fact that according to Companies House David Fedash's residential address is 17 Alpha Road and in April 2008 he set up a company whose business is recorded at Companies House as being radio and television activities, and it's called Media Empire & Sons Ltd.
   
   Can you throw any light on this?

Matthew Bird hasn't replied to us at all, but we have received feedback from BOW member Bob Welfare, who is an experienced trader (see below).

I've concluded the rating for this offer at one out of ten.


Rating:

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BOW Notice: A critical review which raises hard-hitting questions means that in our opinion the business model or the investment model has flaws and/or we have found inadequate evidence to back up claims about earnings, sales, profits etc. It doesn't mean this evidence does not exist and it doesn't mean that the promoters are unprofessional or dishonest. Questions arising are normally contained within the body of the review, and readers who are interested should contact the company with these questions and/or questions of their own.


Your feedback:

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If so, please send us an email. Your feedback will then be posted here anonymously unless you tell us that you want your contact details included.


Feedback from Bob Welfare April 2010:

Here is feedback from Bob Welfare, who is an experienced trader:

Dear Marian,

I trust you are keeping well.

Further to your last email. I have now had some time to test the "10 Minute Trader" book, which you asked my opinion on in your last email to me.

Sorry it's taken a bit of time, but the methods described in this book are far more involved than most other so called trading systems on offer at the moment.

To kick off, the book was dispatched to me in good time. I received it within 7 days of purchasing it. A good start.

The book is nicely presented, and written in a nice friendly manner. Very pleased with that.

But I have three major problems, with the information being presented in this book.

1. You are betting against the betting company
   
   The method being described is different from most other systems used in financial trading, in that it uses "one touch" bets, rather than spread betting or the brokerage system.
   
   Although this appears to be a good idea, given that the risk involved in taking a position this way is strictly limited to the bet size, it does put the betting company in a position that will inevitably stop them taking future bets, should this system prove to be long term profitable.
   
   In effect, this method transfers much of the risk back to the betting company. Sounds great for the reader, and ultimately for the trader of this method.
   
   Unfortunately, in the real world, no betting company will tolerate this for very long, on an ongoing basis.
   
   You'll probably be OK for the first few bets, but then they will refuse to take your bets after that.
   
   This is the problem with using conventional betting, rather than spread betting, in which the spread betting company, hedge the positions you take with them, in the futures markets. So they are in a neutral risk situation at all times.
   
   They then make their money on the spread. So they not only don't care when you have a profitable trade, they positively encourage you to trade, because they make their money on the spread. This creates a good long term future for a winning trading method.
   
   This is my first concern, regarding the "10 Minute trader" method.
   
   I was unable to obtain any testimonials from people who have been operating the 10 minute trader method for any decent period of time.
   
   Always a real worry.
   
   I would expect to see detailed records for at least a year's trading from any legitimate trading method. Again, I could not find any evidence of this.
   
   I know I'm one of the few people in this country who are happy to show their trading records. But I still expect other companies to do it on request.
   
   If I can do it, then they can do it. So when they don't, I have to ask myself why?
   
   
2. BetOnMarkets
   
   My second big concern with the 10 minute trader method, is the huge involvement that "betonmarkets" has in this book.
   
   The moment you open the book, you are confronted with a big advert for betonmarkets.com There is no mention of any other betting company in the whole book.
   
   The reader is also offered a free £20 bet. With a special promotional code and login ID, to get the reader to use the betonmarkets company.
   
   Fair enough you may say. Maybe the writer, Mr. Matthew Bird, has organized this for the benefit of the reader. Extra value for money may have been uppermost in his mind. If so then great. But further reading through the book reveals something that suggests otherwise.
   
   Further on in the book, it's says that you'll have to use betonmarkets to obtain the type of information you'll need to trade this method.
   
   This is a big worry.
   
   It looks to me, very much, that betonmarkets commissioned the writing of this book, or at least had a big part in the making of this book.
   
   I don't know this for a fact. I couldn't get a comment from betonmarkets regarding this question. But I find it highly dubious, when the book says you need to use betonmarkets to make this work, and betonmarkets not getting a nice profit from it. This is either very generous of Mr. Bird, or maybe he's getting a nice commission from betonmarkets. Again, I could not get an answer on this question.
   
   
3. Unable to back test the system
   
   My third and biggest big concern with this 10 minute trader method is the complete lack of being able to back test the system properly.
   
   A major advantage of using conventional trading methods is the ability to back test the method, to prove it's profitable (or not) over the long term.
   
   It would be crazy to throw away an amazing advantage like that. But this is what you'll have to do, if you intend to use the 10 minute trader method.
   
   Because the one touch bets change from day to day, I could not find any back data on what those bet prices were. So when I attempted to back test the system, I could not get those prices. Without those prices, it's impossible to know for sure if the bets were profitable.
   
   Please also bear in mind, most of these bets run for 10 days. I'm happy to leave a position in the markets overnight, but this method would mean leaving a position running over the weekend, which is very risky indeed.
   
   There are a couple of news items that are released every month without fail that would make this amazingly risky. Anyone who trades for a living, knows to stay out of the markets when they are released. To me this is only an hour, but as the one touch bets often run for 10 days, you'll not be able to do this. The one touch method means you'll have to stay out of the markets for about 10 days a month to overcome this problem, severely reducing the opportunities available.
   
   This leaves us with forward testing.
   
   In other words, test every opportunity each day, and keep a record of it. That's always a good thing to do, but it will take a year of testing before you can safely say if it's a really workable method or not. You'll have to do this, because of the inability to back test it.
   
   This then creates a guarantee problem.
   
   With a 60 day guarantee on offer, you're going to go out of the guarantee period, well before you know if it's really profitable or not.
   
   Given there are 200 days of trading a year available, you can see the problem.
   
   Without a year's trading record, you're gambling on its effectiveness. A crazy thing to do.
   

There are other points I don't like about this method. The reliance on moving averages for example, which have well known time lag built into them.

No mention at all about mind management, needed to be successful with any method.

Finally, the complete lack of professional filtering, which is needed in any method to be profitable, no matter what method you adopt.

In fairness to the 10 minute trader book, no other system on offer to date includes professional filtering techniques

Once again, sorry to be so negative about this book. But from a professional trading point of view, it's a shipwreck waiting to happen.

I hope this helps.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Best regards,
Bob Welfare


Feedback from TMTtrader 7th November 2010:

Ten Minute Trader is not a scam. I have been a TMT since August this year and have made a tidy profit thanks very much. Do you know what I think? Charging people £3 to read a review telling you something is a scam when its not! THAT is a scam!

Bye bye "Independent" review site. Subscription to your site? Hmm thanks, but no thanks.

TMTtrader

Editorial reply:

Neither the review, nor Bob Welfare's reply, said that Ten Minute Trader is a scam.

However, as a result of TMTtrader's feedback, I decided to put this review on the public section of the site. At the very least, this would allow TMTtrader to read the review, which it appeared he hadn't yet done because we have no record that he bought the review.

Anyone who is unhappy with a review they have purchased can simply email us to say so and we will refund them.

Of course, if I put all my reviews on the public section of the site, then I wouldn't have a business at all. It's only by charging people to read my reviews that I can run a business and at the same time offer honest, independent reviews - because I don't get any money from business opportunity advertisements or commission links etc. So I have no need to be "nice" to business opportunity promoters.

It's good to hear that TMTtrader has made a profit over his three months so far, although that's not a long enough period to be confident that the system produces consistent results in different market conditions.

Reply to TMTtrader from Bob Welfare:

I remember saying during my review of the Ten Minute Trader method that, because of the nature of the set up it uses, it's very difficult to assess it's workability from previous chart data - what is commonly known as back testing. Because of of this lack of testing ability, I could not recommend using it. At no point did I call it a scam.

TMTtrader has been using this system since August this year, so he informs me, which in the trading business is a very short period of time. Too little data to come to a long term conclusion, which is another reason I am unable to recommend using it. I back test data over a 1 year period as a minimum, before considering it valid.

Forward testing, which means taking every trade set up in real time, is a very wise and sensible precaution to take. Given how difficult it is to back test this method. TMTtrader I assume has been doing this. Hence his comments in his email.

Before taking TMTtrader's analysis of this system as profitable, I would like to see his trading records. I noticed he did not offer them in his email.

At the end of the day, I hope TMTtrader is correct, but I remain to be convinced on such a short batch of data. August this year to today is, in my opinion, simply too short a data batch to be conclusive.

Should TMTtrader be able to supply the necessary trading data, I would be more than happy to assess it.

I hope this helps.

Let me know if you need anything.

Best regards,
Bob Welfare

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